Friday afternoon I was busy with other duties, but checked in on the markets at about five minutes to the close. I was pretty surprised to see the VIX barely in the green (that means up on the day in traderspeak) with the stock market under pressure. My surprise was attributed to more than just the market action. I also expected an increase in the VIX to reflect an increase in premiums going into earnings season which kicks off next week.
We will not know for sure what this lack of movement out of the VIX means until a few days down the road. I interpret it to be an indication that the market is either going to shrug off the reaction to the employment report or the lack of a move in the VIX indicates that market participants have high expectations for the stock market as we enter earnings season. Monday morning the markets reopen and over time we’ll see if the VIX has it right.