Stock Market Commentary 8/19/11

The $SPX chart is perhaps the most negative technical indicator of all. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows persists. How far can this next down leg carry? 1100 is the intraday low from last week; 1077 is the overnight low for the futures; and some technical targets suggest a decline to the 1040-1060 area, which was support from the summer of 2010.

The equity-only put-call ratios are racing upward on their charts at a furious pace. They are extremely oversold, but are not near buy signals yet.

Breadth has been wildly volatile — extremely positive on up days and extremely negative on down days. Breadth indicators are on sell signals again. But they ARE quite oversold.

The overall chart of $VIX remains in an uptrend, and that is another intermediate-term bearish indicator.

In summary, all of the indicators are negative, although some oversold conditions are reaching extremes again, so that sharp but short-lived rallies are possible. The term "crisis of confidence" is being applied to this market, and it seems appropriate