Ready for the “Worst Month”?

According to The Trader’s Market Almanac 2011 by Jeff and Yale Hirsch (Wiley & Sons, www.stocktradersalmac.com), September ranks 12th – the worst month of the year. The theory seems to be that portfolio managers returning from summer vacation decide to “clean house.”

The Hirschs report that, out of the last 60 years, the DJIA was up 23 times and down 37 times.  For 59 years the S&P 500 was up 26 times and down 33 times.  The NASDAQ was up 21 times and down 18 in its 39 years of existence, and the Russell 2000 was up 17 times and down 14 times in its 31 years.

Is this data significant – or predictive?  I don’t think so! It is much more important to stay on top of your charts and to have your stop-loss orders or an appropriate option strategy in place. But this is true at all times, not just in September.

Jim Bittman

Options Institute



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