Blogging from Risk Management Conference

Tobias Levkovich, Chief U.S. Strategist at Citigroup and Keynote Speaker at the 28th Annual Risk Management Conference, predicts the Dow Jones Industrial Average will surpass 14,000 in 2012. “The reasons are fundamental,” said Levkovich. “3 million jobs have been created since the bottom of the recession in 2009, consumer spending is up 20%, and there are stong indications that the housing market has bottomed. The critics who point to the market rise being solely the result of injections of liquidity from the Fed are overlooking what is going on in the real economy.”

Levkovich described a conversation he had with a high-level economic advisor to President Obama. “That advisor told me that he will recommend spending cuts to the President, because that is where the problems are,” Levkovich said.

Richard Joss, Resource Actuary (Retired), Towers Watson, discussed the difficulting in estimating volatility for long-dated index options. “The new 5-year index options (SPXpm) offer great opportunity for investment managers, but they also come with some pricing complexities,” said Joss. “A small change in the volatility assumption dramatically affects the value of a 5-year option. Insurance companies who buy these options and market makers who sell them have a serious challenge in estimating volatility.”

Very interesting speakers and questions from the audience at RMC.

Jim Bittman

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