Fun First Quarter Stats

As many of the people I work with know, I’m a numbers geek. Admittedly, I have more geeky tendencies than this, but we are talking about numbers here. As the first quarter has come to a close with the S&P up 12% I wanted to see how this compares to previous first quarters and what has happened after such an impressive first quarter performance in the past.

First – I have S&P 500 index data going back to 1950 and that’s what I’m working with here. The average first quarter performance is 2.20% and the S&P 500 has been higher 37 of 61 years in the first quarter for a win percentage of just over 60%.

Looking forward – after a positive first quarter the S&P 500 performance has been up an average of 3.07% for the second quarter and the market has been higher 24 or 37 or up just under 65% of the time. 

Finally, the average market performance for the rest of the year after an up first quarter is up 9.01% and the market has been higher over the last nine months of the year 32 times since the market put up a positive first quarter or 86% of the time! 

Of course past performance and market history is no guarantee of the future, but based on history the first quarter of this year points to a good nine months ahead.

Got any more stats you want me to check? Shoot me a comment or email – rhoads@cboe.com