This Week in Emerging Market Volatility

Emerging markets were higher based on the EEM last week and they outpaced the S&P 500 slightly. I saw a few reports last week where GDP growth for emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil should outpace developed market growth and that some investors are looking to those markets for enhanced performance. We’ll see what 2013 brings in 2013. However, VXEEM was up just a tad last week, but still have relatively low levels. The three listed futures all moved down for a flattening of the curve. A flatter curve means lower expected implied volatility in the future which in the case of volatility on an equity index may be taken as a bullish signal.

The same sort of situation appears to be developing for the Brazilian stock market as EWZ outperformed both the S&P 500 and EEM last week. VXEWZ dropped to 23.80, which in VIX world would be considered high, but for VXEWZ is a historically low level. The curve is flattening a bit into 2013 for VXEWZ so this indication is for a lower risk (read bullish) market forecast for next year.

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