This Week in Gold and Oil Volatility

Crude oil futures and the USO were fairly quiet based on a week over week price changes. OVX dropped a little and futures were basically flat on the week with the exception of March which dropped just over 1%.  

The GLD exchange traded fund continues to trade in a fairly tight range finishing the week down less than a perfect. Different forces are pushing GLD in different directions. If there is a belief that the global economy is slipping into a recession next year then your forecast would be lower gold prices. If you are concerned about some sort of major conflict arising in the world the expectation would be for higher gold prices. What is interesting is, at least based on history a big move in GLD in either direction would result in a big move higher or lower in GVZ. Right now GVZ is at historically low levels as are GVZ futures prices. Time will tell, but eventually GLD will get moving in one direction or another, but GVZ will probably rise in either case. If you are interested in GVZ and how it has behaved in the past there is a white paper available –