This Week in Gold and Oil Volatility

The price of gold was pretty dormant last week with GLD trading in less than a 2.00 point range for the whole week. GVZ reacted to the lack of volatility by trading down by just over 14% on the week finishing the week at 13.54. A couple of levels to keep an eye on if GLD continues in a tight range are the 2013 low of 12.46 for GVZ and the all-time low of 11.97. The GVZ futures curve shifted in a manner that resulted in a little more steepness. For instance with less than two weeks until expiration the March futures is at a 1.51 premium to the index.

USO was up just under 1% last week and the implied volatility of USO options dropped to the lowest level since mid-February. OVX settled the week down 12% at 20.80. Just 0.59 lower is the all-time low for OVX of 20.21. The amazing thing about the level of volatility of the oil market comes in the face of the consistent reports that Iran is closer to having nuclear capabilities. For now the oil market, which would definitely react to any military action in the Middle East, appears not to be discounting this risk.

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