2013 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Analysis Picks

Editors Note:  (Price Headley and Moby Waller from bigtrends.com sent us their 2013 Kentucky Derby analysis and picks for this year’s race.  Price and Moby live in the Louisville area and and are big fans of the ponies. Their Kentucky Derby newsletter has been widely followed by the trading community for years.

We have heard a few investors and traders draw a parallel between trading and Price and Moby’s theoretical Derby projections.  They are limiting their risk to $100. They are not putting everything into one investment vehicle.  They have studied the charts and have an opinion as to where their picks will be ~ 2:03 minutes after the starting bell is rung.  They are using different strategies (each using 3).  And in case of rain, Price is buying some low delta, out-of-the-money calls!   Use the following for amusement only.  Lets enjoy the Derby.  Thanks Price and Moby for sharing this with the Option hub Community!)

It’s time for our annual KY Derby selections and commentary. Last year we were pretty dead on, hitting many horses that finished in-the-money in the Triple Crown Races (especially Price’s picks).

First, we’ll start off with an updated table of past Derby winners, their speed ratings and final tune-up race. Our analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in prep races have a better probability of winning the big race.

Derby Winner BRIS Speed Rating Last race (# weeks before Derby)
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER 95, 102 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
ANIMAL KINGDOM 100, 89 Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly)
SUPER SAVER 92, 94 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
MINE THAT BIRD 96, 98 Sunland Derby (5 weeks)
BIG BROWN 106, 104 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
STREET SENSE 98, 101 Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly)
BARBARO 104, 104, 97, 97 Florida Derby (5 weeks)
GIACOMO 100, 96, 98, 96 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
SMARTY JONES 105, 109, 101, 103 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
FUNNY CIDE 111, 103, 97 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
WAR EMBLEM 109, 105, 88, 94 Illinois Derby (4 weeks)
MONARCHOS 108, 108, 106, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
FUSAICHI PEGASUS 110, 103, 100, 98 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
CHARISMATIC 104, 94, 94, 94 Lexington (2 weeks)
REAL QUIET 107, 103, 73 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
SILVER CHARM 102, 98, 105 Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks)
GRINDSTONE 101, 102, 93 Arkansas Derby (3 weeks)
THUNDER GULCH 98, 103, 106 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
GO FOR GIN 104, 105, 99, 100 Wood Memorial (3 weeks)
SEA HERO 96, 85, 77 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
LIL E. TEE 102, 96, 107, 100 Arkansas Derby (2 weeks)
STRIKE THE GOLD 109, 100, 99, 87 Blue Grass (3 weeks)
UNBRIDLED 108, 101, 104, 98 Blue Grass (3 weeks)

 

Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com:

The big wild card in the 2013 Run for the Roses will be the weather, as forecasts show an 80% chance of rain on Saturday in Louisville.
If it is muddy on the track I like to put a little back up money on the long shots of 33-1 or higher, which can save the day if the wet track muddies the current form.

My favorite in this year’s race is Verrazano (Post Position 14, 4-1 odds). He’s the second choice behind new darling Orb, but I like Verrazano’s consistency, as he is the only horse not just 2 but here 3 straight speed ratings over 100. So I will key most of my bets around him.

The Derby usually favors closers and horses that want the extra ground. On that note here’s my top challengers to Verrazano:

Normandy Invasion (PP 5, 12-1): Closing fast on Verrazano at the end of the Wood Memorial, he has also posted impressive workouts lately. The profile reminds me of the similar setup when I picked Funny Cide to win the Derby. Must use this one for exotics and saver win bets.

Revolutionary (PP 3. 10-1): Responded gamely to come back to win the Louisiana Derby. I like his heart.

Vyjack (PP 20, 15-1): It’s hard to look past an undefeated colt with good speed. Breaking from the far outside is not harmful in a large field, the question is if he has staying power.

So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:

$20 Win on 14
$10 Win on 5
$5 Exacta box 5,14
$5 Exacta box 14,20
$5 Exacta box 3,14
$1 Trifecta 14 with 5 with ALL
$1 Trifecta 5 with 14 with ALL

Moby Waller, Portfolio Manager & Analyst:

The 3 year old horses in this race haven’t gone such a long distance before with such a large field. With the expected rain, it will be the tough horses with heart that will emerge — those that can run off the pace and/or closers. Therefore, I threw out what looks like the speed horses that are likely to fade late or get swallowed up by the pack – one of those wire-to-wire horses may end up proving it can run off the pace, but I’d rather select ones that have already proven they can.

Here’s my projected Top 4 finishers:

Revolutionary (PP 3, 10-1)
Java’s War (PP 19, 15-1)
Orb (PP 16, 7-2)
Normandy Invasion (PP 5, 12-1)

Live Longshots that can also hit the board (meaning top 4):

Vyjack (PP 20, 15-1)
Itsmyluckyday (PP 12, 15-1)

I think any of these 4 can win it, so I would be looking to do some Exacta and Trifecta boxes:

Theoretical bets:

$2 Exacta Box (3, 19, 16, 5) = $24
$1 Trifecta Box (3, 19, 16, 5) = $24
$0.10 Superfecta Box (3, 19, 16, 5, 20, 12) = $36
$0.10 Superfecta Box (16, 5, 15, 12, 14, 8) = $36

Good luck!