McMillan Weekly Market Commentary 5.31.13

Since stocks started to stumble last week, volatility has increased and a number of indicators have begun to look more negative.

The chart of SPX is still bullish, though.  This week’s low was 1640, and that is the first support level.  There is also support in the 1625-1635 area, as well as at the still-rising 20-day moving average (near 1635).

LM 5 30 spx

Equity-only put-call ratios have started to roll over to possible
sell signals.

Market breadth has weakened considerably in the last week.  The
NYSE-based oscillator is on a sell signal, while the “stocks only”
oscillator gave — and then aborted — a sell signal.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) and volatility in general have been very bullish supporters of the stock market rally for months and months.  However, that may be changing. $VIX has now risen for six of the last eight trading days. If $VIX is truly developing an upward trend, that is bearish for stocks.

LM 5 30 vix

In summary, we are beginning to see bearish indicator signals for the first time in quite a while.  While the most important indicator the price chart of $SPX — is still bullish, it is worth noting that $VIX is beginning to take on a more negative tone, as are the breadth oscillators, and the standard put-call ratio.