Weekly Stock Market Commentary 6.7.13

The pressure on the stock market increased again this week, driving the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) down through some support levels, and generally turning almost all of our indicators to sell signals.

The next support level for $SPX —  at 1600 —  is the extremely important one, and that held today.  There is now resistance at 1625-1635.

Equity-only put-call ratios are strongly on sell signals.  They are now trending upwards, which is bearish for the market.

Market breadth had been quite poor lately, but recovered a bit Thursday. The two breadth indicators are split at this time: one on a buy and the other on a sell.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) are very important at this time, for they might well be the key to whether or not the bulls can regain control. $VIX is in an uptrend, and that is bearish for stocks. However, it spiked up and back down today.  If it can continue to decline from these levels, that would be a buy signal for stocks.

In summary, we are bearish until proven otherwise.  The $SPX chart has turned bearish by breaking support levels, and if the 1600 support is broken, things could get rather nasty.

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