This Week in Gold and Oil Volatility – 6/29/2013

The SPRD Gold Shares ETF (GLD – 119.11) continued a slide that started in mid-April.  With a couple of small rests GLD has been in a downtrend since mid-February and this ETF is down just over 25% for the year.  With this most recent break of support forecasters are now calling for a drop below $1000 for the spot price of gold which would put GLD under 100.00.  For some strange reason those sort of round numbers attract attention and goofy market activity.  I still recall the first oil future trade at 100.00 it was a one lot that had the appearance of someone trying to be the first one to make a trade at 100.00 in that market.  The chart below shows GLD’s performance for 2013.

GLD Weekly YTD

With the drop in GLD, GVZ moved back up to the 30’s for the first time since April.  A good price level to watch is 34.48 which was the closing high on April 15th.  It appears the futures market expects these high levels for GVZ to continue for a short period of time as the July future closed at 29.50, just a couple of points lower than the spot market.

The US Oil Fund (USO – 34.18) was about 3% higher on the week and this put a damper on OVX.  The curve is still fairly flat for the summer, but July is at a bit of a premium relative to where it was a week ago.

GVZ OVX