Weekly Stock Market Commentary 7.5.13

Ever since the broad market bounced just over a week ago from
the 1560 level, the bulls have been trying to gain complete control.  So
far, they have been stymied. $SPX has not broken out over resistance,
nor has $VIX broken its uptrend.  However, one other important
indicator has turned bullish — the put-call ratio.

$SPX has topped out in the 1620-1630 range for several days.
A close above 1630 would be positive.

Both the weighted and the standard equity-only put-call ratios are now
on buy signals.  This may not be visible to the naked eye (especially
with regards to the weighted ratio), but the signal is confirmed,
according to the computer program that we use to interpret these

Market breadth has stalled in the past couple of days, just like
the market has.  Thus the breadth indicators have once again returned to
sell signals.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) gave well-timed short-term
buy signals on June 25th, the day after the bottom.

In summary, it seems almost certain that the indicators will turn
bullish, because the put-call ratio signals are generally so dominant.
However, their signals can be early, so we would not declare that the
intermediate-term bullish trend has resumed, unless $SPX closed
above resistance at 1630.