Weekly Stock Market Commentary 8.23.13

Nearly all of our indicators turned bearish in the last two weeks.  The
breakdown of the Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) below support
at 1680 was the trigger that turned the $SPX chart negative.

LM 8 23 spx

However, market breadth is already oversold, and buy signals
are beginning to appear from these indicators.

Equity-only put-call ratios have been interesting.  The weighted ratio rolled over to a sell signal a week ago.  The standard ratio, however, has been unable to confirm a sell signal.

Meanwhile, volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have pushed
upward, developing an uptrend, which is bearish for stocks.

LM 8 23 vix

In summary, the indicators are now mixed.  The sell signals were
well-timed, but the market drop quickly created oversold conditions.
Those have sparked a rally, which is likely to be short-lived, but we will
watch the indicators closely for any further bullish confirmation.

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Larry McMillan


Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 300,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals. In a research…