This Week in Emerging Market Volatility – 11/8/2013

Those looking for volatility in the markets through the end of 2013 may want to look to the southern hemisphere and Brazil.  Despite a rebounding nicely from 2013 lows there are new concerns confronting the Brazilian financial markets.  The US was relatively calm last week, but the Brazilian market as measured by the performance of the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ – 47.02) was off more than 5%.  This resulted in a strong move higher for the CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index (VXEWZ – 28.59) which rose about 12.5%.  The futures were higher as well, but not enough to avoid a bit of backwardation in the curve.   Other emerging markets took notice of the EWZ performance (or lack of performance) and the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEEM – 23.83) was up about 10% on the week.  The key difference between VXEEM and VXEWZ can be noted in the futures curves.  VXEEM is in contango and VXEWZ is in backwardation.

VXEEM VXEWZ