In the last 3 days, the market has rallied about 30.00 dollars in the SPX. Knowing that, traders would expect the VIX to have gotten completely pasted as traders dumped volatility. Take a look at how S&P has moved and how VIX has moved.
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When the S&P moves up, one of the biggest red flags is that the VIX fails to keep up with SPX. I would make a strong argument that VIX holding 14 and dropping less than 1 point, towards this being a double top, and that there is another trip lower heading our way. Making the lack of sell off even more surprising is that we are heading into a long weekend. Traders should be jumping over themselves to sell premium. If we aren’t heading much lower, I would argue that we are probably NOT going to be seeing much more to this rally.
With a floor set, a long vol. play tomorrow afternoon could make some sense as a play on a break one way or the other.