Weekly Market Commentary 2.14.14

A lot has happened in the past three weeks, but $SPX is literally
unchanged from where it was at that time.  A nearly 100-point round
trip has taken place — down, then up.

A move above 1850, to new highs, would be very bullish for
$SPX.  Although if it happens right away, it will be without support
from many of our indicators.  Meanwhile, there is minor support at
1800, and major support at 1740 (the February lows).

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on sell signals.

Market breadth has been quite strong during the rally.  As a result,
both breadth indicators are in overbought territory, but remain on buy signals.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST) have fallen
sharply.  Their buy signals were generated on February 3rd,
and they continue to remain in place.

In summary, the round trip by $SPX has left both bulls and bears
puzzled as to what comes next.  It seems likely that a pullback is
necessary — either to eliminate some of the overbought conditions so
the market can rally to new highs, or to retest the lows and perhaps set
off a more serious correction.

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Larry McMillan

optionstrategist.com

Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 300,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals. In a research…

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