Weekly Market Commentary 3.27.14

(Editors Note:  Larry sent this to us one day early due to a travel commitment).

The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has been bouncing around within a trading range for nearly a month now.  There is resistance at 1880+ (the all-time highs) and there is support at 1840 (most recently tested a couple of weeks ago).  There is validity to the theory that it is being wound up like a coiled spring, and could therefore explode with some force once the range’s limits are broken.
LM 3 25 spx

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals.  That is, they continue to rise (Figures 2 and 3).  When a put-call ratio is trending higher, that is bearish for the underlying.

Market breadth has been fairly negative recently, and both of the breadth indicators that we follow are on sell signals as well.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST), however, present
the other point of view.  The “spike peak” buy signal from March 18th remains in effect, and as long as $VIX lingers at relatively low levels, that too is bullish for stocks.

LM 3 25 vix

In summary, there are still conflicting signals:  volatility is bullish, put-call ratios and breadth are bearish, and $SPX is trapped in a trading range. The issue won’t be resolved until $SPX breaks out of that 1840-1880 trading range.

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Larry McMillan

optionstrategist.com

Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 300,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals. In a research…

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