Weekly Market Commentary 4.4.14

The broad stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poors 500
Index ($SPX) made new all-time intraday and closing highs on
consecutive days this week.  That, coupled with some new buy signals
from breadth makes our intermediate-term outlook bullish.

Countering the bullish case is the fact that the equity-only put-
call ratios have stubbornly remained on sell signals, but this might
be protective hedging activity.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been very
supportive of the bullish case.  We have two new buy signals from
breadth, plus the cumulative advance-decline line made a new all-time high.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST) have remained
subdued, which is bullish as well.  As long as $VIX remains below 16,
that is generally bullish for stocks.

In summary, the indicators are generally bullish, with the
exception of the equity-only put-call ratio (which might be distorted by
hedging).  As long as $SPX remains at or above 1870-1880, we
will retain an intermediate-term bullish outlook.