Weekly Market Commentary 4.11.14

The stock market has taken on a potentially bearish tone, although all the pieces are still not in place.  But now that 1840 level has given way, the bears finally seem to have a chance to really take control of the market for the first time since the fall of 2012.  We are not necessarily saying this is a full-fledged bear market, but the intermediate-term outlook has now turning bearish.
lm spx
Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals since early March.  They were not dissuaded by the $SPX move to new all- time highs.

Market breadth has been volatile. For the record, both breadth
indicators are back on sell signals.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, and $VXST) have still not completely bought into the bearish argument. $VIX has spiked up towards 16 several times, but each time it has closed back lower, and the market has rallied. The bearish signal would come if $VIX closed clearly above 16.

lm vix
In summary, the breakdown by $SPX is bearish. But it would be
much more convincing if it were accompanied by a sell signal in