This Week in Emerging Market Volatility – 4/18/2014

After two years of doing this I can finally use the word ‘boring’ to discuss what went on in the emerging markets sector last week.  Despite the US markets surging higher, Brazil was just up by 0.23% based on the performance of the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ – 47.50).  Also, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM – 42.01) was up about 0.40%, with both lagging the 2.71% gain in the S&P 500 for the short week last week.  The quiet performance of EEM and EWZ translated to a quiet performance for their respective volatility indexes as well.  As seen below, both VXEEM and VXEWZ didn’t change much on a week over week basis.  The thing that catches my eye is the discount of the VXEWZ May future to the spot index.  Anticipation of low volatility like this can also be taken as a bullish outlook for the underlying market.  Could be some volatility traders think another leg to the upside is on the horizon for Brazilian stocks.