Weekly Market Commentary 4.25.14

The stock market is once again nearing all-time highs, although it has
not broken out (yet).  If $SPX can’t punch on through to new highs, then it will remain
within the widened trading range.  At this point, most of the technical
indicators are bullish, so we would expect at least an attempt to
challenge the highs.
lm  spx

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals for over
a month now.  That is beginning to change, as the ratios are starting
to roll over.

The market breadth indicators are on buy signals and are
modestly in overbought territory.

Volatility indices ($VIX, $VXO, $VXST, and even $VXN) remain low.
As long as these volatility indices remain at low levels, stocks should
be able to advance.
lm vix

In summary, $SPX is into the resistance area at the upper end of
the 1810-1900 trading range.  Since we have generally positive
indicators, we would not be surprised by a breakout to new highs.
However, it is far from assured.