Weekly Market Commentary 5.2.14

The stock market is stalled at the high end of its trading range (1810-1900). There is near-term support at last Monday’s low of 1850.

LM 5 2 spx

Equity-only put-call ratios remain split.  The weighted ratio continues to decline from a recent high, and that means it’s on a buy signal, while the standard ratio remains on a sell signal.

The two market breadth indicators that we follow are showing mixed signals as well, with the NYSE-based one on a buy signal, but the “stocks only” on a sell.  This divergence would disappear if NASDAQ breadth would improve.

Volatility indices ($VXST, $VIX, and $VXV) all are remaining at low levels, and that is conducive to rising stock prices.  That is, as long as volatility is not trending higher, stocks can rise, and that’s what they are doing.

LM 5 2 vixIn summary, market is on the verge of turning bullish here, but a breakout over 1900 by $SPX is going to be required to confirm it.

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    Why is TLT bond fund so elevated? That would suggest to me that there isn’t a whole lot of interest in rushing into stocks.