Where is GOOG?

Somewhere, as the market kicks around the all-time highs, the tech stocks are recovering from the shellacking they took.  I don’t know if NFLX will see $400 this year or TSLA $255.  We do have volatility in the large indexes scraping the bottom of the barrel so the big tech selloff has subsided for now.

I don’t really count GOOG ($527.81, off $0.12) in the hyper-momentum category.  The company dominates in its area, has tons of cash and with AAPL pretty much owns the smart phone market.  Every year or so, GOOG goes on a spending binge, and that freaks everyone out that they cannot grow margins.  Q1 in 2014 is shaping up to be the nasty quarter.

all graphs from LIvevolX (r) www.livevol.com

The market takes the upside out by crushing the call skew down.  It happens time and time again as a trade.  If you look at the just OTM calls about 30+ days out the call skew is downward sloping to a point.  That makes long ratio calls spread pretty cheap to put on with limited downside risk.

What is still in the tech sector is a bit of realized volatility.  The stocks are moving around.  GOOG can move like any other and is showing brisk movement long past the earnings date.  Realized vol. versus implied is looking crazy good at these levels.  How much AAPL can you buy anyway?

The Trade

Long Call ratio backspreads in GOOG on the Jun 13th (extended weekly’s) cycle and when GOOG launches unwind.  2.5 point strikes up to the 565 level, 5 point differences above that.   atg   Follow Andrew on twitter @optionvol   Disclosure: GOOG positions

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Mark Sebastian

Mark Sebastian is a former member of both the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the American Stock Exchange. The Author of the popular trading manual "The Option Traders Hedge fund." He is a frequent guest on CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg, First Business News. Sebastian has been published nationally on Yahoo Finance,…