Weekly Market Commentary 5.16.14

It is hard to imagine a market any more perverse than this one.  Once
again, there has been a failure to break out on the upside, despite some
favorable (although not unanimous) technical conditions.   Now $SPX
has pulled back into the previous trading range, whose limits of 1810-1900
are more secure than ever.
5 16

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on split signals.
It is only fitting, I suppose, that these ratios continue to be in
conflict while at the same time $SPX can’t find a direction to sustain.

Market breadth indicators are in a bearish state now, with both
of them on sell signals.

Volatility indices ($VXST, $VIX, and $VXV) have not risen
much at all, and thus they remain in a generally bullish mode.
PH 5 16 vixIn summary, the market is back within its trading range, awaiting a breakout.

I can’t really imagine a less overbought condition than there was when $SPX made
new highs last Monday, and yet there was no follow-through. So, the trading range
appears to be the order of the day for the foreseeable future.