Weekly Market Commentary 5.23.14

The stock market is proving to be frustrating to both bulls and bears.   Despite chances for each, neither camp has been able to take control.

The resistance level at 1900 for $SPX has thwarted the bulls, despite making marginal new all-time highs early last week.  Conversely, the bears have had a couple of strong down days, but they have not been able to break $SPX down below support at 1860.  Hence, despite what other indicators might “say,” directional trades are not really appropriate until $SPX can break out of that range.

LM 5 21 spx

The equity-only put-call ratios have maddeningly been on
opposing signals for nearly a month.  This is unusual.

Market breadth has been jumping back and forth with the stock
market.  After the strong breadth readings of the past two days, all of the breadth indicators have returned to buy signals.

Volatility indices ($VXST, $VIX, and $VXV) are quite interesting. In general, they are very low, which is an overbought state, but the stock market can continue to rally while overbought.  A $VIX close above 14.50 would be negative for stocks.

LM 5 21 vix

In summary, the market remains volatile within a narrow 1860-
1900 range for $SPX.  Until $SPX breaks out of that range, we would not recommend adding to speculative positions, no matter how compelling the individual indicators appear to be.