This Week in Oil and Gold Volatility – 7/18/2014

The price of oil rose a bit in conjunction with the flare ups in the geopolitical situation this past week. However, oil had backed off from 2014 highs a few weeks ago and did not come close to surpassing those levels despite some real fear that showed up in the stock market. This resulted in OVX moving up on Thursday, but not nearly to the extent of equity market volatility.

OVX PA

Gold also moved higher as would be expected when there is uncertainty that involves armed conflict. However, like oil, gold didn’t break out to new highs. In fact the move higher for GLD actually resulted in the price moving back into the middle of support and resistance.

GVZ PA

The underlying markets have a little in common, but the weekly curve changes tell two different stories. GVZ shifted higher in the type of manner that raises a warning that a bigger price move that has been experienced over the past few weeks may be on the horizon. With respect to oil, the volatility futures seem to be indicating low expectations of any big price moves in the near term.

GVZ OVX

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Russell Rhoads, CFA

CBOE Options Institute

Russell Rhoads, CFA, is a Senior Instructor with the Options Institute at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He joined the Institute in 2008 after a career as an investment analyst and trader with a variety of firms including Highland Capital Management, Caldwell & Orkin Investment Counsel, TradeLink Securities and…

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