Weekly Market Commentary 8.1.14

The genie is now out of the bottle, and it’s going to be very hard to put
him back in again. $SPX has broken major support at 1950, and that changes
things: the chart of $SPX is no longer bullish; it is now bearish.
spx 7 31

Equity-only put-call charts continue to remain on sell signals.
These put-call ratios will remain bearish until they
roll over and begin to trend downwards.  It doesn’t appear that will
happen anytime soon.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) was a harbinger of this
move.  Both breadth indicators are on sell signals and
are deeply into oversold territory.  However, the market can
decline while these are oversold, so these are not buy signals.

This now brings us to volatility.  As one might expect, volatility
literally exploded yesterday. $VIX is now in an uptrend, and that is
bearish for stocks.
vix 7 31

In summary, all of the indicators are negative.  There are some
oversold conditions beginning to appear, but there are no buy signals
at this time.

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Larry McMillan

optionstrategist.com

Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of Options As a Strategic Investment, the best-selling work on stock and index options strategies, which has sold over 300,000 copies. An active trader of his own account, he also manages option-oriented accounts for certain individuals. In a research…

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