Weekly Market Commentary 8.8.14

The $SPX chart remains bearish after having broken down through 1950.
$SPX sliced right through the next support level at 1925, and after temporarily
holding at 1915, appears ready to test the major support level at 1900.
lm 8 8 spxEquity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. They are both rising steadily, and as long as they are trending higher, that is negative for stocks.

Market breadth has been problematic for over a month now.  Both breadth
oscillators are on sell signals, and both are in oversold territory.  All that “oversold”
means in this case is that sharp, but short-lived rallies are possible at any time.

Volatility indices ($VXST, $VIX, and $VXV) had one strong up day on July 31st,
but since then they have fallen back some and don’t seem to be tracking the decline
much at all.  Nevertheless, the trend of $VIX is higher, and that is bearish for stocks.
lm 8 8 vixIn summary, the intermediate-term indicators are all on sell
signals, and so we remain intermediate-term bearish.