Three Gray Swans Week of 8/18 – 8/22

The earnings calendar is light so this week is all about the economy. We get a read on inflation, a look into the mind of the Fed, and then hear from the Fed to finish out the week.

Consumer Price Index – Tuesday Morning Before the Open

An hour before the market opens the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Report (CPI). This is a measure on inflation and it is still in a safety zone relative to the Fed taking action to keep prices under control. The expectation is for a rise of 0.1%. A number that comes in significantly higher could have a negative impact on the equity market.

FOMC Minutes from July 30th – Wednesday Afternoon

Two hours before the stock market closes minutes from the two day FOMC meeting that concluded on July 30th. This report will be parsed for any indication of what the voting members are concerned about of focusing on. The next Fed meeting is another two day affair that concludes September 17th and is followed by a press conference by Janet Yellen.

Janet Yellen Jackson Hole Speech – Friday Morning

At 10:00 am New York time Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at the annual Fed gathering in Jackson Hole. The title of the discussion is “Labor Markets” which has historically been an area of interest for this Fed Chair. The market will be closely focused on any insight into the timing of any changes in Fed policy, but may be a bit disappointed at the lack of useful information from the speech as she will not be fielding any questions on Friday.