Three Gray Swans – Week of August 25 – 29

Here are three things worth watching next week that could influence the financial markets in the US.

Tuesday Before the Open – Durable Goods Orders

The number to watch is the July Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation orders which is expected to rise around 0.6%.   Boeing experienced a large number of aircraft orders which will skew the number including transportation to the upside. This is why there is a number reported to exclude the transportation sector, so we can have a number worth comparing to previous the previous month that makes sense.

Thursday Before the Open – Second reporting of GDP for the Second Quarter

The more accurate estimate of GDP for the second quarter will be reported. The first estimate was 4.0% for the second quarter. The consensus number is that it will be remain unchanged at 4.0%, but there are some forecasts for a slight drop.

Friday Before the Open – Personal Income and Spending

There are a few components to this report and my focus is going to be on the PCE read on inflation which is expected to rise only 0.1%. I believe the eventual rise in interest rates will come in conjunction with concerns regarding inflation. That gives numbers like this a little more importance than they have had in the past few years.