This Week in Gold and Oil Volatility – 8/22/2014

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD – 123.19) dropped about 2% last week, but stayed in the mid-120’s range that we have become accustomed to, although at the lower end of the range. GVZ moved up a tad, but with a 13 handle the direction does not mean as much as the level. The level of GVZ indicates traders are not worried about a break down or break out in the price of gold over the next few weeks.

GVZ PA

Oil markets continue to defy logic by not exhibiting any global risk premium at all. The same can be said for OVX which is at the low end of historic levels after losing over 10% last week.

OVX PA

If there is any risk showing in the gold or oil markets it would come from the chart on the bottom right.   The OVX curve is pretty steep which shows despite current calm, the volatility futures show a price shock for oil before 2014 comes to an end is a distinct possibility.

GVZ OVX