A general takeaway from the CBOE RMC Europe conference last week is that the stock market seems ready for some sort of correction. You would not get that sense by looking at VIX and seeing a 12 (or lower) closing handle for every day over the past three weeks. However, looking at things in context, none of those closing levels have been below 11.00. We saw several 10’s back in June and July. Of course the S&P 500 is just over 1% higher than when we saw the last closing 10. I’m not saying VIX is high, but just pointing out that it is higher than it was when the S&P 500 made some of those other all-time highs this year.
The curve isn’t showing much fear, at least when looking at the futures expiring around the treacherous September and October time periods. Going all the way out to May we have futures closing under 18 which is pretty incredible and can just be piled on to the long list of evidence that show complacency with respect to the equity market.