The S&P 500 was down just over 1% last week and VIX reacted with a rise in to the 13’s. You can also say that VIX rose 10%, but I think that overstates the reaction to the market selling off a little. It feels like we have rebounded so many times when the S&P 500 moves down a couple of percent that traders have tired of preparing for the continued sell off that never comes. VIX finishing the week at 13.31 when a 1% drop tells me that we really have reached complacency among market participants.
I did find the September VIX future at a 0.74 premium to the index kind of interesting. This shows more concern than the spot index, especially when you consider that there are only two trading days remaining until VIX settlement this coming Wednesday on the open. Expect VIX and the September contract to begin to converge over the next couple of days. As far as whether the index rises of the future drops, that one is a pretty tough call.