This Week in Gold and Oil Volatility – 9/19/2014

Between gold and oil, oil is not getting much love so I’m going to talk about oil volatility. Oil futures (November) appear to be putting in a 90.00 to 95.00 range and the US Oil fund is grinding around as well.  If a new price range, that appears to have very little geo political risk priced in, holds expect OVX to languish around in the high teens.

OVX PA

Gold has broken support and is getting a lot of attention as the price approaches multi year lows. First check out then volatility chart that shows GVZ maintained relatively high levels (relative to this year) with GLD moving lower.

GVZ PA

The intraday low for GLD in 2014 is 116.72 which was established this past week and may be considered a support level (weak one, but still support until broken). I looked back a little farther into late 2013, and extended the weekly GLD price chart back a little to include 114.50 which was an intraday low that also brought in some bargain hunters late last year.

Gold Weekly

 

The GVZ curve is relatively flat with the futures rising a bit despite the drop in GVZ, the appearance of indecisiveness can be associated with the blue line on the left. OVX and the whole curve shifted lower and also changed shape from fairly flat to contango which usually is associated with relative calm over the near term.

GVZ OVX CURVES