This Week in Emerging Market Volatility – 9/26/2014

Both EEM and EWZ were down well over 2% last week as several equity markets gave back 2014 gains. VXEEM was up 2.89 or over 16% in reaction to equity market weakness.


VXEWZ, on the other hand was up 6.66% on the week. VXEWZ has been at elevated levels and should remain elevated until national elections are completed next month. These elections can (and are predicted to) go two rounds which may result in uncertainty until the end of October.


The VXEEM curve got pretty flat which I always take as real uncertainty with respect to the next direction for the underlying market. VXEWZ continues to display a shape with no real common term. Basically there is an expectation of a return to lower volatility after the uncertainty of the election is out of the way, hence the much lower November and December futures prices.