Weekly Market Commentary 12.05.14

The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index
($SPX), sold off for a couple of days and then rebounded quickly to
new all-time intra-day and closing highs.  However, sell signals and
overbought conditions abound, so all is not bullish.

LM 12 04 14 spx

With $SPX making new all-time highs, its chart is bullish, and
the trend of the market is higher. Price is the most important indicator.
That has not changed.

Both of the equity-only put-call ratios have rolled over to sell
signals.  The weighted signal was confirmed a few days ago, and now
the standard ratio has joined in.

Market breadth has been bouncing back and forth with the
market, forcing the oscillators to move into and out of sell signals.  As
it stands at the moment, the NYSE-based breadth oscillator is on a sell
signal, while the “stocks only” is not (although it is very close to one).
indicators.

Volatility indices spiked up last Monday, but then have settled
back down at low levels.  As such, volatility remains in a bullish
stance as far as the stock market goes.

LM 12 04 14 vix

In summary, the trend of the market is up, and as such it must be
respected.  Hence the intermediate-term outlook remains bullish.
However, with sell signals from breadth and equity-only put-
call ratios, there is certainly danger of at least a sharp, but perhaps
short-lived correction.  With seasonality being as bullish as it is, it is
much more likely that any such correction would occur very soon or
not until after the New Year.  LM