Weekly Market Commentary 12.19.14

In nearly 45 years of trading, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a market as wild as the one has been this month. Let’s review the entire technical picture. First of all, the chart of $SPX has not yet returned to a bullish state. $SPX would have to trade at new highs (above 2080) in order to turn the chart bullish again. LM 12 19 spx Meanwhile, the equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. They have been racing up their charts, but they still aren’t even halfway up the charts. Thus, they are not in an oversold state.  Since these are 21-day moving averages, they sometimes can’t turn as fast as a market can reverse, but after two strong days in the stock market, they remain on sell signals. Market breadth has turned bullish.  Both breadth oscillators fell into a deeply oversold state when the bulk of the selling occurred early this week.  Then, on the rebound, they have swung over to buy signals. Volatility has been swinging back and forth wildly, as one might suspect.  Compounding this activity, there was a problem with $VIX quotes early in the week, and that resulted in some erroneous $VIX prices.  Regardless, a $VIX spike peak buy signal occurred this week, and that is powerfully bullish (as we have seen). LM 12 19 vix However, the trend of $VIX is actually still upward.  That is, the 20-day moving average is rising and $VIX is at a higher level that it has been for most of the post-October time period.  A rising trend in volatility is bearish for stocks.

In summary, the overall technical picture is mixed.  Some powerful short-term buy signals are in effect.  Also, adding to the bullish is the positive seasonality that now seems ready to take over.  However, there are still some intermediate-term negatives, and until they are overcome, the all-clear will not be sounded for the bulls.