Weekly Market Commentary 2.27.15

(Editors Note:  For those attending Traders Expo New York at the Marriott Marquis this weekend, please stop by and say hello to Larry McMillan and his group.  Russell Rhoads from the Options Institute at CBOE will be at Traders Expo as well).

The stock market continues to move higher, albeit at a very slow pace. That makes the $SPX chart bullish, of course, and it will remain bullish as long as $SPX holds above support.  The highest support level is the 2090-2100 range that $SPX traded in last week.

LM 2 27 15 spx

Equity-only put-call ratios generated their most recent buy signals on February 3rd.  Those were well-timed buy signals, and they remain in place.  These ratios continue to drop, and that is bullish for stocks.

Market breadth has not been a particularly strong supporter of the rally, however.  It hasn’t been completely negative, but it hasn’t chimed in with the strength that one would expect to see when $SPX
is breaking out to a series of new all-time highs.  Regardless, both breadth oscillators remain on buy signals, and both are in modestly overbought territory.

Volatility indices have been declining for the entire month of February.  That is bullish for stocks.  $VIX remains bullish as long as it continues to close below 17.

LM 2 27 15 vix

In summary, the intermediate-term outlook is bullish, in line with the strength of the most important indicator — the chart of $SPX.  The fact that breadth has not really confirmed the rally is a minor nuisance, but as long as $SPX support is not violated, breadth doesn’t matter.