Weekly Market Commentary 3.20.15

In figure 1, the support at 2040 and the resistance at the recent all-time highs of 2120 are marked as a trading range.  Until $SPX breaks out of that range, it really doesn’t have a trend in place.  To support that conclusion, the indicators are somewhat mixed.

LM 3 20 15 spx

Equity-only put-call ratios have remained on sell signals during this latest rally.

Breadth hasn’t been terrific during this rally, but it was strong enough to pull the “stocks only” oscillator into a mildly overbought state.  However, the “stocks only” oscillator has returned to a sell signal.

Finally, volatility indices and derivatives have painted a more bullish picture.  As a result, I have marked a trading range area, showing that $VIX 13-17 corresponds roughly to $SPX 2040-2120.  Hence, as long as $VIX remains below 17, the market can rally.

LM 3 20 15 vix

In summary, the oversold rally has returned $SPX to a more or less neutral state. Intermediate-term traders and trend followers would want to await the next $SPX breakout from its trading range as the determinant of a more well-defined intermediate term trend.