Weekly Market Commentary 5.1.15

Stocks dawdled at or just above the previous all-time highs, but couldn’t convincingly
push through with a strong move.  As a result, things began to deteriorate. Now, 2070 has some significance. If $SPX breaks down below 2070, a more bearish scenario should unfold.

LM 5 1 15 spx

Equity-only put-call ratios are still on buy signals.  Both have “wiggles” curling
upwards after Thursday’s big down day, but they remain on buy signals.

Market breadth has been somewhat weak of late, and that has been a recurring
problem of sorts since last summer.  Both breadth oscillators rolled over to sell
signals this week.

Volatility derivatives and indices have been the most bullish indicators for
some time now.  As long as $VIX flounders around at low levels, the stock market
can advance without much problem.

LM 5 1 15 vix

In summary, the bulls have failed once again to move the market convincingly to
new all-time highs.  But can the bears do any better? While we have one sell signal (breadth), we are looking for an accompanying sell signal before turning bearish.