We had the most exciting market action during the holiday shortened week. As everyone knows we can thanks the cradle of civilization Greece for all the hub bub. On Monday the S&P 500 was down over 2% for the first time since October of last year. VIX reacted accordingly by rising over 34% on the day for the biggest one day move in over two years.
Despite the S&P 500 rebounding a bit, the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve continues to signal some concern. The VXST to VIX premium is pretty interesting considering that on Thursday we got the June employment number behind us and we are in the middle of a long weekend. Typically VXST experiences a big of a head wind going into a long weekend due to the calculation being based on calendar days. I was honestly a bit surprised at the shape of the curve when I started putting this blog together Thursday night.
I often respond to criticism of VXX by stating that, “it does what it is supposed to do when it is supposed to do it.” This past week the long ETPs did what they were designed to do and rallied on Monday in response to a dramatic increase in market volatility.
Late Thursday a ratio spread was executed in the UVYX space that will result in a profit as long as UVYX does not rally over 43% between now and July 10th. With UVYX at 42.32 there was a buyer of 300 UVXY Jul 10th 55 Calls at 1.90 who also sold 600 UVYX Jul 10th 60 Calls at 1.39 each for a net credit of 0.88 per spread. The payout diagram below shows how things will turn out base on this spread being held through the close this coming Friday.
UVXY finished the day at 42.59 and the break-even price for this trade is up at 65.88. That’s a 43.6% move to break-even. As long as UVXY finishes the week at 55 or lower the result will be the 0.88 per spread credit taken in when the spread was established turning into a profit.