Weekly Stock Market Commentary: Intermediate-Term Indicators Remain Negative

The relative calm of the stock market trading in a range for six months was shattered in recent days. As recently as August 18th, all was calm. But beginning with a sharp 17-point drop in $SPX on the 19th, the rout was on. The support area at 1980-2000 was blown away, but it may offer some resistance on the way back up. There should also be major resistance at the 2040 level. Meanwhile, Monday’s lows at 1870 represents support. If that is violated, last October’s lows at 1820 are the next support area.

Equity-only put-call ratios rolled over to sell signals about two weeks ago. They are still racing higher on their charts — indicating that they remain on sell signals, but they are in oversold territory since they are so high.

Market breadth was extremely weak during the decline, pushing the breadth oscillators into deeply oversold territory. They remain on sell signals, but they too are oversold.

Volatility indices exploded during the market decline. $VIX has given a “spike peak” buy signal, but a more negative development is that $VIX is now trending higher, which is bearish for stocks.

In summary, the intermediate-term indicators (trend of $SPX, trend of $VIX, put-call ratios, and breadth oscillators) remain negative. But there are several buy signals arising from shorter-term indicators, and they are actionable.