Large caps ruled the week with the Russell 1000 (RUI) gaining over 3%. Small cap stocks were no slouches, but the Russell 2000 did lag the Russell 1000 gaining 2.5%. For the year RUI is up 1.21% and RUT is down 2.45%. However, at the end of this blog I’ll note some statistics that show RUT still has a shot at victory in 2015.
Both the CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX) and VIX were lower last week based on the rally in the equity markets. RVX dropped from 23.15 to 18.39 while VIX was lower finished the prior week at 18.16 and finishing the day this past Friday at 15.47. The premium of RVX relative to VIX came in a bit and is in line with this year’s average reading of around 19%.
This coming week is a holiday shortened Thanksgiving week which means Christmas is just around the corner. That also means you will hear talk of Santa Clause or Year End Rallies. Before all the talk gets started I decided to run numbers and in this case the talk isn’t cheap. We have Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 data going back to 1993 so we have 22 Decembers worth of data. Here are some stats I found pretty interesting.
- In the last 22 years the Russell 1000 has moved higher 18 times in December (81.8%)
- In the last 22 years the Russell 2000 has moved higher 19 times in December (86.4%)
- In 14 of the 22 Decembers where we can compare RUI and RUT performance the Russell 2000 has outperformed (63.6%)
The bar chart below show the year by year December performance for the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000.