Weekly Stock Market Commentary 3/18/16

The completion of the powerful, bottoming “W” formation at the beginning of March was the launchpad for this leg of the rally. It has more room to run.

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on buy signals. The standard chart has seen a slight “wiggle” develop this week, but it does not dissuade the computer programs from continuing to say that these ratios are solidly on buy signals.

Market breadth continues to be strong. Both oscillators are currently on buy signals, and rather deeply in overbought territory, which is positive for the market.

Volatility indices held at relatively high levels this week, in advance of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon. After that turned out to be a “non-event,” volatility indices collapsed. $VIX remains bullish as long as it is not trending upward.

In summary, things are going wonderfully for the bulls. So, one should remain long in speculative positions, but continue to tighten trailing stops. It is a not a time for complacency, though, for as we have seen from the past, these strong rallies can fade, and bear markets can re-emerge swiftly. When sell signals arise, we will act on them, but not before.