Category Archives: Futures

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Capitulation Or Acceleration? – Weekly Market Outlook

Stocks toyed with the idea two weeks ago, but pulled the trigger last week.  What’s that?  A significant stumble.  After the bullish momentum slowed the first full week back after Thanksgiving, it reversed – in spades.  The S&P 500’s (SPY) (SPX) 3.5% pullback last week was actually the worst single calendar-week performance since August of […]

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Weekly Market Commentary 12.12.14

Various indicators have been turning bearish since mid-November.  But until this week, $SPX itself had not broken down, and since price is “king,” that was quite important.  However, now $SPX has broken down, as it has fallen below support at 2050.  This completes a bearish pattern, and a full-fledged correction is underway. This could be […]

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Free Webcast and a Cyber Monday Deal

Tomorrow Mark Sebastian and I will be hosting a webcast at 3:30 pm Chicago time to discuss our recent paper on leveraging buywrite strategies along with a discussion of preliminary results for a leveraging SPX put selling strategies. There’s still time to register – www.cboe.com/webcasts CBOE is on the “Cyber-Monday” bandwagon offering deeply discounted online […]

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Oil & Dollar At Crucial Long-Term Areas – Weekly Market Outlook

While the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday of last week was supposed to be catalytic, the market seemed a little disappointed – and disinterested – in the fact that Janet Yellen and her cohorts didn’t really say much (or decide much) of anything during last month’s gathering.  It wasn’t until Friday’s […]

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The Week in Russell 2000 and Nasdaq-100 Volatility – 11/3 – 11/7

I’m going to start with the Nasdaq-100 because I have a lot more to say about Russell 2000 volatility this week. VXN was down about 6% despite the underlying market rising only a little last week. This is one of those time periods where VXN and RVX both appear to take the lead from VIX more than in reaction to […]

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10-YEAR U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index Futures to Launch Next Week

CBOE Futures ExchangeSM (CFE®) confirmed today that it will launch futures trading on the CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility IndexSM (ticker symbol: VXTYN) next week, on Thursday, November 13, 2014. Futures on the VXTYN® Index offer customers a way to hedge pure interest rate volatility risk based on U.S. government debt with a single […]

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Post Election VXEWZ Analysis

On Monday the Brazilian equity market reacted somewhat as expected to the re-election of Dilma Rousseff to another term as president of Brazil. When I say as expected, Rousseff is not considered very business friendly and her election resulted in about a 4% drop in the iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ).   This 4% drop […]

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Calculating the New VIX—the Easy Part

The movements of the CBOE’s VIX® are often confusing.  It usually moves the opposite direction of the S&P 500 but not always.  On Fridays the VIX tends to sag and on Mondays it often climbs because S&P 500 (SPX) option traders are adjusting prices to mitigate value distortions caused by the weekend. In addition to these market driven eccentricities the […]