Category Archives: Technical Analysis & Charts

No Comments

Will The Bounce Have Legs? – Weekly Market Outlook

Although the market technically lost ground last week, between Wednesday’s and Thursday’s back-to-back intraday reversal bars and Friday’s strong bullish follow-through, stocks ended the week on such a positive note that it’s tough not to be at least a little bullish now.  And, given that all big trends start out as small ones, Friday’s bullish [...]

No Comments

Weekly Market Commentary 10.10.14

The stock market has become extremely volatile, trading up and down hundreds of Dow Jones points in a day. But our indicators have remained steadfastly bearish throughout the last few weeks. For example, despite several big rally days, $SPX never broke the downtrend line that connects its series of lower highs. Until that downtrend is [...]

No Comments

Do Options Dream of Dancing Underliers?

While doing simulations on volatility and the square root of time I started thinking about what kind of time options experience—calendar time, market time, or something in-between. The CBOE’s VIX® calculations use calendar time, a 365 day year, but most option gurus recommend using a 252 day year for volatility calculations—the typical number of trading [...]

No Comments

Warning Alarm Or Healthy Pullback? – Weekly Market Outlook 9.29.14

The BigTrends TrendScore is a daily reading on the bullish/ bearish level of various market assets – it uses the S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SPY) as a proxy for the broad market.  The SPY Trend-Score fell out of the bullish range for the first time since early/mid August on last Thursday, but did close back into bullish territory on Friday. To some [...]

No Comments

Weekly Market Commentary 9.12.14

The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has made repeated new all-time highs — both intraday and closing — over the past three weeks. This action has, of course, resulted in a “bullish” $SPX chart.  The bears have made several attempts to sell the market intraday, but each time it seems to quickly regain strength [...]

No Comments

Weekly Market Commentary 8.22.14

The rally that began on August 8th has extended quickly and strongly to take $SPX to new intraday and closing all-time highs.  When it crossed over resistance at 1960, the $SPX chart improved from “bearish” to “neutral.”  If another all-time closing high is registered today, that will officially make the $SPX chart “bullish.” Equity-only put-call [...]

No Comments

12 Key Stats Re: VIX Index

In the recent August 16 Striking Price column in Barron’s, Steven Sears authored a piece entitled “A New Vision of VIX” that noted –  “Over the past 21 years, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has emerged as one of Wall Street’s most watched sentiment indicators. …Krag “Buzz” Gregory, a Goldman strategist, found that U.S. [...]

No Comments

Walking A Fine Line Here – Weekly Market Outlook

In retrospect, last week’s bounce wasn’t have been a total surprise.  Most of the market’s major indices were approaching major support levels, as we’ve previously discussed.  Will the momentum continue or will the bearish volatility return? We’ll look into that, right after a quick look at all of last week’s and this week’s economic numbers. [...]

No Comments

CBOE Launches New S&P 500 End-Of-Month Options

Following up on an earlier CBOE Blog, CBOE recently launched the new, and long anticipated, S&P 500® End-of-Month Options. The introduction of these options stemmed from requests by asset managers who wanted an SPX option expiration that more precisely coincided with their end-of-month fund cycles and performance periods. To date the launch has been very [...]

No Comments

Valuation Trepidation – Weekly Market Outlook

Ouch.  Not that traders didn’t have an inkling the market was overbought and perhaps poised for stumble, but few saw coming the suddenness and size of Thursday’s drubbing.  However it materialized, we have no choice but to at least entertain the possibility that this is the beginning of a much more significant pullback. We’ll slice [...]

No Comments

Weekly Market Commentary 7.18.14

Well, the market finally found something it couldn’t shake off —  at least not right away — on the geopolitical front.  Normally, this wouldn’t be a big deal, but an overbought, somewhat nervous market can react to this type of news dramatically, and it did.  So what is the real overall effect? First of all, [...]

No Comments

Key SPX & VIX Levels To Watch Here – Weekly Market Outlook

Even with last week’s losses, there’s a glimmer of hope for this overbought market.  And with the onset of earnings season, anything is still possible.  Just know that the deck is still stacked against stocks here.  They reminded everyone last week that no rally can last forever.  The good news is, there are some clear [...]

No Comments

Why You Should Care About Alcoa’s Earnings by Hannah Chody

My name is Hannah Chody and I am a summer intern at the CBOE and a rising senior at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, majoring in Finance. My attraction to fast-paced environments and quantitative skills led to an early interest in financial markets and exchanges. After hearing about the CBOE’s summer [...]

No Comments

Lowest VIX Monthly Close Since January 2007

Option implied volatility continues to stay low with the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) hitting new all-time highs recently (and downside volatility in the Nasdaq lessening greatly) – other factors involved in the dropping CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) (VXX) include seasonality (many traders are on vacation this time of year and trading volume tends to slow [...]

No Comments

9 Weeks (And Counting) Of Treading Water – Weekly Market Outlook

Part of the market’s current stagnation can be chalked up to the time of year… the coming summer doldrums.  Another part of it, however, stems from the fact that traders are simply unsure of what to think here.  The good news is, the floors and ceilings are pretty clear.  The challenge is, there’s no particular [...]

No Comments

Option Trends: Walgreen Company and Herbalife Ltd.

Call buyers have been scoping out WAG, while troubled HLF has attracted put traders Options players are choosing sides on a pair of prominent wellness names: pharmaceutical retailing giant Walgreen Company (NYSE: WAG, $69.62, off $0.25) and nutritional supplements provider Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF, $61.91, up $0.03). Per data from the major options exchanges, traders [...]