Category Archives: Technical Analysis & Charts

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Capitulation Or Acceleration? – Weekly Market Outlook

Stocks toyed with the idea two weeks ago, but pulled the trigger last week.  What’s that?  A significant stumble.  After the bullish momentum slowed the first full week back after Thanksgiving, it reversed – in spades.  The S&P 500’s (SPY) (SPX) 3.5% pullback last week was actually the worst single calendar-week performance since August of […]

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Weekly Market Commentary 12.12.14

Various indicators have been turning bearish since mid-November.  But until this week, $SPX itself had not broken down, and since price is “king,” that was quite important.  However, now $SPX has broken down, as it has fallen below support at 2050.  This completes a bearish pattern, and a full-fledged correction is underway. This could be […]

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Weekly Market Commentary 12.05.14

The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ($SPX), sold off for a couple of days and then rebounded quickly to new all-time intra-day and closing highs.  However, sell signals and overbought conditions abound, so all is not bullish. With $SPX making new all-time highs, its chart is bullish, and the […]

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Weekly Market Outlook 11.28.14

(Editors Note: We got this Friday from Larry. Enjoy) The stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ($SPX) continues to march upward at a dizzying pace.  The market is overbought, and if $SPX violates support at 2060, we could finally see a correction. Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals.  You […]

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Oil & Dollar At Crucial Long-Term Areas – Weekly Market Outlook

While the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday of last week was supposed to be catalytic, the market seemed a little disappointed – and disinterested – in the fact that Janet Yellen and her cohorts didn’t really say much (or decide much) of anything during last month’s gathering.  It wasn’t until Friday’s […]

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Small, But Growing, Reasons To Be Concerned Here – Weekly Market Outlook

Stocks may have technically made a fourth straight weekly gain last week, but the real story was the incredibly quiet, flat market action.  We’ll delve into overall stock market index analysis, and some factors that have us concerned despite the overall bullish trend momentum picture, after we take a look at the recent and upcoming […]

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The Week in Russell 2000 and Nasdaq-100 Volatility – 11/3 – 11/7

I’m going to start with the Nasdaq-100 because I have a lot more to say about Russell 2000 volatility this week. VXN was down about 6% despite the underlying market rising only a little last week. This is one of those time periods where VXN and RVX both appear to take the lead from VIX more than in reaction to […]

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Dividend Play in Apple Marks the End of the Golden Goose

Apple options have led single stocks for several years now, with recent average daily volume near one million contracts and 9.5million contracts of open interest – a full 7.4% of single-stock total OI. On many days nearly 10% of all the single stock flow is in AAPL- leaving the other 3693 listings in the dust! […]

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Calculating the New VIX—the Easy Part

The movements of the CBOE’s VIX® are often confusing.  It usually moves the opposite direction of the S&P 500 but not always.  On Fridays the VIX tends to sag and on Mondays it often climbs because S&P 500 (SPX) option traders are adjusting prices to mitigate value distortions caused by the weekend. In addition to these market driven eccentricities the […]

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Will The Bounce Have Legs? – Weekly Market Outlook

Although the market technically lost ground last week, between Wednesday’s and Thursday’s back-to-back intraday reversal bars and Friday’s strong bullish follow-through, stocks ended the week on such a positive note that it’s tough not to be at least a little bullish now.  And, given that all big trends start out as small ones, Friday’s bullish […]

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Weekly Market Commentary 10.10.14

The stock market has become extremely volatile, trading up and down hundreds of Dow Jones points in a day. But our indicators have remained steadfastly bearish throughout the last few weeks. For example, despite several big rally days, $SPX never broke the downtrend line that connects its series of lower highs. Until that downtrend is […]

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Do Options Dream of Dancing Underliers?

While doing simulations on volatility and the square root of time I started thinking about what kind of time options experience—calendar time, market time, or something in-between. The CBOE’s VIX® calculations use calendar time, a 365 day year, but most option gurus recommend using a 252 day year for volatility calculations—the typical number of trading […]

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Warning Alarm Or Healthy Pullback? – Weekly Market Outlook 9.29.14

The BigTrends TrendScore is a daily reading on the bullish/ bearish level of various market assets – it uses the S&P 500 Index (SPX) (SPY) as a proxy for the broad market.  The SPY Trend-Score fell out of the bullish range for the first time since early/mid August on last Thursday, but did close back into bullish territory on Friday. To some […]

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Weekly Market Commentary 9.12.14

The Standard & Poors 500 Index ($SPX) has made repeated new all-time highs — both intraday and closing — over the past three weeks. This action has, of course, resulted in a “bullish” $SPX chart.  The bears have made several attempts to sell the market intraday, but each time it seems to quickly regain strength […]

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Weekly Market Commentary 8.22.14

The rally that began on August 8th has extended quickly and strongly to take $SPX to new intraday and closing all-time highs.  When it crossed over resistance at 1960, the $SPX chart improved from “bearish” to “neutral.”  If another all-time closing high is registered today, that will officially make the $SPX chart “bullish.” Equity-only put-call […]

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12 Key Stats Re: VIX Index

In the recent August 16 Striking Price column in Barron’s, Steven Sears authored a piece entitled “A New Vision of VIX” that noted –  “Over the past 21 years, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, has emerged as one of Wall Street’s most watched sentiment indicators. …Krag “Buzz” Gregory, a Goldman strategist, found that U.S. […]

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Walking A Fine Line Here – Weekly Market Outlook

In retrospect, last week’s bounce wasn’t have been a total surprise.  Most of the market’s major indices were approaching major support levels, as we’ve previously discussed.  Will the momentum continue or will the bearish volatility return? We’ll look into that, right after a quick look at all of last week’s and this week’s economic numbers. […]

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CBOE Launches New S&P 500 End-Of-Month Options

Following up on an earlier CBOE Blog, CBOE recently launched the new, and long anticipated, S&P 500® End-of-Month Options. The introduction of these options stemmed from requests by asset managers who wanted an SPX option expiration that more precisely coincided with their end-of-month fund cycles and performance periods. To date the launch has been very […]

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Valuation Trepidation – Weekly Market Outlook

Ouch.  Not that traders didn’t have an inkling the market was overbought and perhaps poised for stumble, but few saw coming the suddenness and size of Thursday’s drubbing.  However it materialized, we have no choice but to at least entertain the possibility that this is the beginning of a much more significant pullback. We’ll slice […]

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Weekly Market Commentary 7.18.14

Well, the market finally found something it couldn’t shake off —  at least not right away — on the geopolitical front.  Normally, this wouldn’t be a big deal, but an overbought, somewhat nervous market can react to this type of news dramatically, and it did.  So what is the real overall effect? First of all, […]

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Key SPX & VIX Levels To Watch Here – Weekly Market Outlook

Even with last week’s losses, there’s a glimmer of hope for this overbought market.  And with the onset of earnings season, anything is still possible.  Just know that the deck is still stacked against stocks here.  They reminded everyone last week that no rally can last forever.  The good news is, there are some clear […]

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Why You Should Care About Alcoa’s Earnings by Hannah Chody

My name is Hannah Chody and I am a summer intern at the CBOE and a rising senior at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business, majoring in Finance. My attraction to fast-paced environments and quantitative skills led to an early interest in financial markets and exchanges. After hearing about the CBOE’s summer […]